Nifty gains 1.26% in Week 15, forming a second consecutive HHHL structure after a prolonged downtrend. With volatility easing, FII selling cooling, and global risks from crude oil and geopolitics still active, here’s a detailed technical and macro breakdown for the week ahead.
|
Nifty50 |
|||
|
Week High |
Week Low |
Market structure |
Range |
|
24401 |
23556 |
HHHL |
845 |
|
Nifty 50 |
||
|
Start |
End |
Return (%) |
|
24051 |
24354 |
1.25 |
The Indian equity market continued its recovery momentum in a truncated trading week, signaling a potential structural shift after weeks of sustained weakness. With improving price action, reduced volatility, and stabilizing institutional flows, the undertone has clearly turned cautiously bullish, though global risks remain elevated.
After 7 consecutive weeks of LHLL structure, the market has now formed second consecutive HHHL. This is a critical structural shift as it suggests sellers are losing dominance while buyers are stepping in at higher level. Market may be transitioning from downtrend to early uptrend pattern. However, confirmation of a sustained uptrend will require follow-through above key resistance zones.
Nifty 50 Technical Analysis (Weekly View)
Moving Averages:
|
Wk |
Current |
50 DMA |
200 DMA |
|
15 |
24354 |
24414 |
25157 |
Nifty is currently testing 50 DMA resistance and is still well below 200 DMA. A decisive breakout above 50 DMA could accelerate bullish momentum while 200 DMA remains a major long-term resistance zone.
Pivot level:
|
Pivot level (classical) |
||||
|
Resistance 1 |
24451 |
Pivot 24273 |
Support 1 |
24175 |
|
Resistance 2 |
24549 |
Support 2 |
23997 |
|
|
Resistance 3 |
24727 |
Support 3 |
23899 |
|
The index is hovering just above the pivot, indicating a bullish bias as long as 24,175 holds. A sustained move above 24451–24550 can open the path toward 24700+, while a breakdown below 24000 may trigger short-term weakness.
Indicators:
RSI: 57
RSI value of 57 indicates neutral to bullish momentum, with further room for upside.
MACD: -15 Signal : -245
MACD is improving (though still negative)
ADX of 27 shows strong trend strength is building.
ROC (21): 5.2 (Positive momentum building)
Momentum is turning positive, but trend confirmation is still in progress, typical of an early reversal phase.
India Vix : 17.2
The drop in volatility signals reduced panic, increased stability in price action and better environment for positional trades. Lower VIX and rising price is signaling towards a healthy bullish setup.
FII–DII Activity:
|
Net purchase/Sell (crore) |
|
|
FII |
DII |
|
-251 |
569 |
Massive FII selling has sharply reduced while DII support continues, though at a slower pace. This shift removes a major downside pressure seen in previous weeks
.Global Factors:
Brent Crude (90.38 USD)
Dollar Index (97.9)
Brent Crude at $90.38 has come down from $100+ levels. It is positive for inflation outlook and corporate margins. The US Dollar Index is at 97.9, easing from 100+ levels. It is positive for emerging markets and FII sentiment improvement.
Ongoing tensions involving the US, Israel, and Iran have triggered volatility in crude oil and created global uncertainty. Markets remain resilient as of now, but any escalation could quickly alter sentiment.
Domestic Macro:
CPI inflation: 3.4%
Forex reserves: $700.95 billion
CPI rose to 3.4% (March) vs 3.2% (February) but is still within a comfortable range, though inching higher.
Recovery of about 40 billion in forex reserves after March decline indicates external sector resilience.
Sector Performance (Weekly)
Top gainers of Nifty 50:
Adani Ports (8.59%)
Asian Paints (8.40%)
Adani Enterprises (7.94%)
Buying was concentrated in infrastructure and consumption-driven names, indicating selective strength.
Top losers of Nifty 50:
Coal India (-3.75%)
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (-2.29%)
Maruti Suzuki (-1.76%)
Weakness in energy and auto sectors suggests profit booking and sensitivity to global factors like crude prices.
Market Interpretation
The market has moved out of a clear downtrend and entered a transition phase with a bullish bias. A sustained move above the 50 DMA could mark the beginning of a fresh upward cycle. However, traders should remain cautious near resistance zones and keep an eye on global developments, especially crude oil and geopolitical tensions.
A brighter look for next week Trading is being signaled by GIFT nifty. It is trading 1.15% higher at 24,700 which indicate towards the possibility of a gap-up opening next week.
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